Permit sequences can be useful — but only after local validation
Austin’s fixed plumbing + electrical → mechanical rule survived three later tests; other markets remain candidates until their project links are measured.
What is now confirmed
In Austin, a fixed 180-day rule was specified before three later test periods: plumbing and electrical permits are present, mechanical is not yet present, and all permits are joined by the city’s shared permit-number base. It exceeded a building-permit control by 35.8 points in 2024, 37.5 in 2025, and 38.2 in the observable 2026 cohort. Read the full reproducibility package, including the source manifest, cohort and code.
Why a sequence is not automatically a signal
Permits must first be joined to the same physical project. A matching address, parcel or building identifier can be wrong when a property has multiple projects over time. We treat an unmeasured inferred join as a research lead, not as proof and never as a paid per-project claim. Each result also excludes records without a complete observation window, so recent projects cannot be mistaken for failures.
Replication registry
| Market | Current research status | What is needed before a confirmed rate |
|---|---|---|
| Austin | Confirmed historical replication | Continue prospective monitoring |
| New York | Exploratory only | Measure the accuracy of the inferred building episode |
| Seattle | Exploratory only | Measure address-based project linking |
| Chicago | Useful same-permit participant data, not a cross-permit sequence result | Measure cross-permit linkage |
| Orlando | Exploratory only | Measure parcel-and-project-name linking |
| Philadelphia | Earlier analysis is not reissued from the current feed | Recover a source with trade and contractor fields |
What this does and does not say
A historical sequence can prioritize which public record to research first. It does not show the current scope, availability, price, contractor choice or whether a particular project will proceed. Confirm every project with the issuing authority before a commercial decision.
Direct answer
Our analysis uses the public records and sample shown below to measure a historical pattern, not to predict one future job with certainty. The answer is useful only with its jurisdiction, sample and time horizon attached; therefore each result should guide research priority and be verified against the issuing authority before commercial action.
How to use this research
These results are descriptive measurements from the stated records, market and observation window. Use them to choose what to investigate first, then verify an individual project with the issuing authority. A historical result is not a guarantee of a future permit, award or hiring decision.
Conclusion
The practical value is a narrower and more explainable research queue. The evidence is strongest when its jurisdiction, sample and horizon remain attached to the claim; that is why Projects Ahead does not turn local measurements into a single national score.