A method you can check
Each signal is a local historical measurement, tied to an issuing authority and a defined observation window.
We start with public permit records, preserve the original source, normalize trade names and reconstruct a project only when the linkage method can be explained and tested.
Collect
We use permit records published by the issuing authority. Source records remain separate from derived data.
Resolve
Permits are joined into a physical project through a documented procedure, not an assumed field name.
Measure
At a moment in a timeline, we calculate how often a target trade appears within a stated horizon.
Publish
We show the market, sample size and time window. Data unavailable at that moment is never used.
Why every market is separate
Permit systems, trade labels and project timing vary by issuing authority. A result that works in Philadelphia is evidence for Philadelphia — not a national accuracy claim.
What we withhold, and why
A historical frequency is not a product. Before Projects Ahead sells a per-project signal in a market, that market has to clear a release gate: a minimum sample, a minimum uplift over the base rate, a significance threshold raised to account for testing several horizons, and — the part that takes real time — the same result holding on records that arrived after the rule was fixed. Choosing the best-looking horizon after seeing the outcome is selection, not evidence.
No market has cleared that gate yet. Philadelphia is awaiting its prospective check; Austin and Orlando are blocked earlier, because we have not finished measuring how accurately their permits can be grouped into projects, and a grouping of unknown accuracy cannot support a paid claim. Until a market passes, its permit records, company histories and published frequencies stay available, and its per-project signal stays unpublished.
We also publish results that went against us. Fire protection was evaluated as a target trade in Philadelphia and rejected: the uplift was real but too small to meet the threshold we set beforehand.
Source and freshness
Page footers name the update date. Figures are derived from public records and should be checked against the issuing authority before any commercial decision.