{
  "title": "Austin permit-sequence replication package",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T09:40:46+00:00",
  "source": {
    "publisher": "City of Austin Build + Connect",
    "dataset": "3syk-w9eu",
    "query_url": "https://datahub.austintexas.gov/resource/3syk-w9eu.json?$select=permit_number,permittype,issue_date,masterpermitnum,original_address1&$where=issue_date%20%3E=%20%272019-01-01T00:00:00.000%27%20AND%20permittype%20in(%27BP%27,%27EP%27,%27MP%27,%27PP%27)&$limit=50000",
    "source_file": "austin_permits_raw.csv",
    "source_sha256": "dd3a8e1fb2b481a55ce597fd8ab213333d0150f8ec4c5dd884ad8410ad3692cc"
  },
  "derived_projects": {
    "file": "austin_projects.csv",
    "sha256": "50c9c49475b7661c72c522dc7097efe7ee60b99ab33bfda84b5ec094d86baf7f",
    "rows_all_link_methods": 81547,
    "rows_authoritative_permit_base": 62333
  },
  "public_cohort": {
    "file": "austin-authoritative-project-cohort.csv",
    "sha256": "d24dca6212643610720277e8f2e00be4934b7117fdfcff55bdf9a88904f2e40b",
    "rows": 62333
  },
  "analysis": {
    "file": "analysis.py",
    "sha256": "de49db7a2bfaec618c3bb5a5fb44c35c595d70d1151868e99e33c75e55f9455d"
  },
  "hypothesis": "Plumbing plus electrical, with no earlier mechanical permit, precedes a mechanical permit within 180 days more often than a building permit alone.",
  "inclusion": "Only projects linked by Austin's shared permit-number base are included; inferred parcel/address links are excluded.",
  "right_censoring": "A project is counted only when its T date plus 180 days is inside the named observation window.",
  "periods": [
    {
      "period": "discovery_2019_2023",
      "window_start": "2019-01-01",
      "window_end": "2024-01-01",
      "signal": {
        "n": 24856,
        "hits": 17529,
        "rate_pct": 70.5
      },
      "building_only_control": {
        "n": 67179,
        "hits": 20715,
        "rate_pct": 30.8
      },
      "uplift_pp": 39.7
    },
    {
      "period": "validation_2024",
      "window_start": "2024-01-01",
      "window_end": "2025-01-01",
      "signal": {
        "n": 1959,
        "hits": 1261,
        "rate_pct": 64.4
      },
      "building_only_control": {
        "n": 5936,
        "hits": 1696,
        "rate_pct": 28.6
      },
      "uplift_pp": 35.8
    },
    {
      "period": "replication_2025",
      "window_start": "2025-01-01",
      "window_end": "2026-01-01",
      "signal": {
        "n": 2094,
        "hits": 1445,
        "rate_pct": 69.0
      },
      "building_only_control": {
        "n": 6281,
        "hits": 1981,
        "rate_pct": 31.5
      },
      "uplift_pp": 37.5
    },
    {
      "period": "prospective_2026_q1",
      "window_start": "2026-01-01",
      "window_end": "2026-09-19",
      "signal": {
        "n": 857,
        "hits": 591,
        "rate_pct": 69.0
      },
      "building_only_control": {
        "n": 2540,
        "hits": 783,
        "rate_pct": 30.8
      },
      "uplift_pp": 38.2
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "This is a historical association in one jurisdiction, not a probability for an individual job.",
    "The control is every Austin building permit in the source, including those never followed by any trade permit; it is a building-permit timeline, not a randomized comparison.",
    "The public cohort omits contractor names, addresses and contact details; the issuing authority remains the primary record."
  ]
}